UFC Fight Night 27: Predictions


Condit vs Kampmann Banner


UFC Fight Night 2: Condit vs. Kampmann goes down this coming Wednesday on August 28th, 2013 at the TD Garden in Boston Massachusetts featuring a main event of ‘The Natural Born Killer’ Carlos Condit vs. Martin ‘The Hitman’ Kampmann in the welterweight division and a co-main event of lightweight stand-outs Donald Cerrone and Rafael Dos Anjos. Here are our MMAInsider.net staff picks.  Feel free to share your picks in the comments!

Want to compete with the MMAInsider.net crew?  Move on over to MMAFantasyFever.com and go head to head with us.

Welterweight Bout – Carlos Condit (28-7) vs. Martin Kampmann (20-6)

DR: Squeezed in between the debut of Fox Sports and UFC 164, this card has largely flew under the radar, which is a shame as Condit vs. Kampmann will not only be a strong contender for FOTN, but potentially one of the fights of the year. Condit is heavily favored by the bookmakers in this one, but personally I don’t really see why as I see it being just as evenly contested as the first bout. Kampmann came out victorious in their last meeting, in a decision that some people thought was fortunate. However, I wasn’t one of them, I thought Kampmann won fair and square and often goes under rated in the UFC’s ever improving welterweight division. Kampmann repeatedly took him down during the first fight, dragging ‘The Natural Born Killer’ to the mat in every round, and in his most recent bouts we’ve seen that Condit’s takedown defense is still his weak-point. While the fight is standing it’s likely to be pretty even with both men more than adequate with their stand-up abilities, once again though I feel it will be Kampmann who just edges this one out with a more well-rounded game, despite Condit being almost as talented on the floor.

The one thing I haven’t mentioned that may be in Condit’s favor is the fact that this time they’ll be competing in a five-round fight, something which Condit is no stranger to. Meanwhile Kampmann, a former middleweight, has never been past the third round, with the former CWFC middleweight champion finishing both of his previous title fights well within the time limit. Whether that’s a telling factor in this bout remains to be seen and just because Kampmann hasn’t been five rounds before, doesn’t mean I can confidently say he’s not capable of doing it so I’m still leaning towards the ‘Hitman’ to eke out a decision, or possibly even get a stoppage via one of his trademark guillotine’s that he came very close to finishing in their first encounter. For now I’ll go with the slightly safer option of a nod from the judges. – Kampmann via Decision

CG: The first time I watched Kampmann/Condit 1 I thought Condit should’ve gotten the nod, but having recently watched it again I had a change of heart.  I think Martin won that first fight 29-28 due to his ability to put Condit on his back.  One of Carlos’ downfalls is his comfort level fighting off his back.  That’s not the best game plan to sway the judges your way with the current scoring criteria.  Since that first fight Condit has gone on a tear, ultimately capturing the UFC Interim Welterweight Championship before failing in his bid to unify it with GSP’s UFC Welterweight Championship.  He also lost a close fight to current #1 welterweight contender Johny Hendricks.  Kampmann, on the other hand, has gone 5-4 and been knocked out by Paul Daley and Johny Hendricks over that same time.  He also tends to get in trouble early and against a proven finisher like ‘The Natural Born Killer’ (26 finishes in 28 wins) that is a recipe for disaster.  I think Condit avenges the loss he suffered in the first fight, and in impressive fashion. – Condit via (T)KO

DF: In 2009 the 25 year old Carlos Condit faced a seasoned 5-1 UFC veteran, Martin Kampmann, his first UFC fight, headlining no less.  Martin Kampmann pulled out a split decision.  I don’t think that will be happening again.  Kampmann went on to go 5-4 leading up to this fight.  Condit on the other hand has gone 5-2, snatching the interim welterweight title.  Oh, and those two losses?  How about decision losses to GSP and Johny Hendricks.  This kid has evolved into one of the greatest welterweights in the sport.  I expect him to push the pace early with his striking, and eventually take Kampmann to the ground.  My heart says (or wants) this is to end in a (T)KO, but my brains says…. – Condit via Decision

CP: If you’ve ever watched a Kampmann fight you’ll notice a very specific trend in each of his fights.  In the early rounds he gets tagged and rocked.  Has yet to fail.  Chalk up their first fight to octagon jitters for Condit, because that isn’t going to happen this time around.    Watch Condit work his striking early, tag Kampmann, do some more damage on the ground to finish or set up a submission.  If I had a hat on me I’d eat it if this fight goes any other way.  – Condit via (T)KO

JS: Everything I said about Donald Cerrone could also apply to Martin Kampmann. An elite fighter who is sometimes frustrating to watch due to his slow stars. He himself once said he doesn’t truly register he’s in a fight until he’s been hit. That cost him dearly against big power fighters Paul Daley and Johnny Hendricks. I also feel this could cost him dearly in having a cumulative sense against Condit. Condit is a master strategist and I’m always impressed at how he comes back following a loss, plugging as many holes in his game as he can. This is my front runner for FOTN. I see Condit getting back on the winning track Wednesday night for one reason and one reason alone, he wants to erase the doubters like me who say he lost the first fight. If Kampmann starts slow, his night ends early. –Condit via (T)KO

MMAInsider.net picks – Carlos Condit 4-1

Lightweight Bout – Donald Cerrone (20-5 (1NC)) vs. Rafael dos Anjos (19-6)

DR: This should be an exciting encounter matchup between two well-rounded athletes. Although Cerrone has plenty of submission wins on his record, many of them are set up through his striking and I feel he’d rather see this one contested predominantly as a kickboxing bout, although he’s likely to mix in the odd takedown as well to keep Dos Anjos guessing. Meanwhile, BJJ black belt Rafael Dos Anjos would probably prefer to see this one contested on the ground and will look to set up his takedowns with his striking, which is more than serviceable. Overall I think this bout just leans towards Cerrone who is the more adept striker, hits harder and should be able to deal with any problems that arise on the mat. – Cerrone via Decision

CG: Donald Cerrone has become one of my favorite fighters over the past few years.  You have to respect a guy that comes to fight each and every time he steps in the cage, and his varied always attacking style is just plain fun to watch.  After running his UFC record to 4-0 he stepped into his fifth appearance for the company, all five fights also took place in the 2011 calendar year, against Nate Diaz.  I’m not sure if it was the amount of action he partook in during 2011, or something entirely different altogether, but he didn’t seem to show up for that fight.  He was beaten to the punch for the duration of the bout, and dropped a fairly one sided unanimous decision.  He went undefeated in 2012 with a couple wins over Jeremy Stephens and an absolute barn burner, for the entire 1:16 it lasted, against Melvin Guillard.  After being hurt early Cerrone caught Melvin with a head kick, and finished him with punches in a dual bonus bout that saw him win Knockout and Fight of the Night.  2013 has seen him split a loss for a win as he was stopped with a nice body kick from Anthony Pettis, and put on a clinic against Strikeforce import KJ Noons in May.  He faces off against Rafael dos Anjos who is riding an impressive four fight winning streak entering this bout with wins over Mark Bocek, and most recently Evan Dunham.  After a 4-4 start to his UFC career it seems dos Anjos is finding his stride, but unfortunately for him I think his streak ends come fight time.  Cerrone will be too much on the feet, and, as Dave pointed out, is adept enough on the ground to avoid anything the Brazilian might present.  I suspect Cerrone notches another technical knockout win to his record in this one. – Cerrone via (T)KO

DF: dos Anjos is a tough scrappy ground fighter, and while I don’t see him being able to really hang with Cerrone on his feet, if this fight goes to the ground he has a better than average chance of picking up the Submission.  That’s just it though, that’s the only path I see him winning this fight.  Whereas I believe Cerrone has multiple avenues.  He’s an outstanding Kickboxer, and he’s not too shabby on the ground either, with 13 submission victories.  I suspect even though he has decent chops on the ground he’ll want to keep this standing, pick apart dos Anjos and cruise to a decision or a (T)KO win.  – Cerrone via (T)KO

CP: There are two factors that I see being the most significant to this fight.  The first is can dos Anjos hang in with the striking of Cerrone.  If he can he’s got a chance to get to factor two, which is can he get the fight to the ground.  If dos Anjos can’t get this fight to the ground he’s going to have to deal with the striking of Cerrone, and that’s either going to be a very long night on way to decision, or if dos Anjos can’t handle the striking, a knockout.  I personally see dos Anjos being able to handle what Cerrone can dish, but I don’t see him winning, so – Cerrone via Decision it is.

JS: Cowboy is one of my favourite fighters, he’s also one of the most frustrating. He’s one of the most exciting to watch but also one of the nerveracking. He’s an enigma and has the skill of a title contender but has a habit of starting slow. I can’t quite figure him out. My bet is that he does well enough on the ground defensively against Dos Anjos’s relentless attack to open up opportunities to utilize his Muay Thai advantage standing. Nate Diaz is really the only man to exploit Cerrone consistly standing and I don’t have the faith Dos Anjos can do the same. – Cerrone via (T)KO

MMAInsider.net picks – Donald Cerrone 5-0

Welterweight Bout – Kelvin Gastelum (6-0) vs. Brian Melancon (7-2)

DR: The second bout of the night to feature a TUF winner, as Kelvin Gastelum, who took home the TUF 17 trophy, takes on Brian Melancon, with Gastelum making his welterweight debut. Gastelum wasn’t particularly fancied in the finale, where he defeated Uriah Hall (7-4) but showed a well-rounded game built around his wrestling base that allowed him to pull out the victory. At just twenty-one years of age I expect him to be one of those fighters who shows vast improvements from fight to fight and although Melancon looked impressive in his last bout at UFC 162, knocking out Seth Baczynski (18-10) in the first round, I think Gastelum will have too much for him here. One thing that could throw a spanner into the works is how well Gastelum deals with cutting down to 170, but assuming that goes well, I see him getting a finish here via ground and pound. – Gastelum via (T)KO

CG: Gastelum makes his welterweight debut in this fight, and while divisional changes, especially dropping a division, tend to make me nervous I don’t think the extra cut will be the deciding factor in this fight.  Kelvin was a beast at middleweight, winning The Ultimate Fighter Season 17 at that weight even, and I expect this to translate well into his career at welterweight.  Having only gone the distance once in his career, against Uriah Hall at the TUF 17 finale, he has a proven track record as a finisher with him securing 2 and 3 wins via knockout and submission respectively.  Melancon made an impressive UFC debut back at UFC 162 in July becoming only the second man to knock out Seth Baczynski (18-10).  He does, however, step in as a late replacement for Paulo Thiago against the TUF winner in this one, and not having a full camp behind him to prepare for a fighter like Gastelum isn’t the way you want to enter this bout.  I expect Gastelum to run his UFC record to 2-0 with a nice technical knockout over the former Strikeforce product. – Gastelum via (T)KO

DF: Kelvin Gastelum is back in his first fight since beating Uriah Hall during the TUF 17 finale.  Except he’s back as a welterweight.  I’m picking Gastelum for a variety of reasons.  Chief among them is he should have a distinct strength advantage.  He’s undefeated as a middleweight, 6-0, not including the 4 other exhibition fights during TUF.  He’s used to being in there with (presumably) bigger, stronger guys.  Yet he manages to knock them out, or get them on the ground, control them, and put them to sleep.  Age is a factor in this fight.  Normally with age comes experience, but Gastelum, 21, is 6-0 (Again, not including the 4 TUF Exhibitions).  While Melancon, 31, is 7-2.  Fairly comparable.  This should give Kelvin not only the size, strength, and reach advantage.  But most likely a speed advantage as well.  I see a finish, I just can’t decide if it’s a submission, or a (T)KO – Gastelum via (T)KO

CP:  The underdog story of last picked in the house, and then going on to win TUF should play up how easy it is to pick Gastelum.  He beat number two picked Josh Samman and won TUF by beating number two picked Uriah Hall, who was knocking people out left and right all season.  The only hiccup in this pick is the weight cut.  As Dave mentioned, this will be Gastelum’s first fight at 170 and I always seem to lose a pick when I pick a fighter cutting weight for the first time.  Might as well not break the chain but hopefully break the streak. – Gastelum via Decision

JS: I was very impressed with Brian Melancon in his debut at UFC 162. (I picked against him) I thought he would be overwhelmed by jitters but he quickly dispatched Seth Baczynski and erased any doubt in my mind that he could compete. What we didn’t see however, is his ability to keep a fight off the floor. This ability will certainly be tested by TUF winner Gastelum who shows a well rounded albeit raw set of skills. We will see major strides from him which will be enough to carry him through his first test at 170 just fine. – Gastelum via Decision

MMAInsider.net picks – Kelvin Gastelum 5-0

Welterweight Bout – Court McGee (14-3) vs. Robert Whittaker (11-2)

DR: We have two welterweight bouts on the card that include ‘The Ultimate Fighter’ winners, with this one pitting two of them against each other. The first of which being Court McGee, winner of season eleven taking on Robert Whittaker, who won the TUF Smashes version of the show. McGee has had a decent run, winning four of his six official UFC bouts, but it’s worth noting that both of his losses have come when he has faced some of the more talented fighters in the division, in Nick Ring (13-2) and Costa Philippou (12-2 (1nc)). Although admittedly the loss to Ring was rather controversial.  Meanwhile, Whittaker has fought just once for the UFC since the TUF Smashes finale, where he defeated Bradley Scott (8-2) to win the tournament, defeating another TUF winner (TUF 16) in Colton Smith (3-2) via knockout. McGee is the more experience fighter but I think Whittaker showed in his bout with Smith that he has crisp, accurate striking and knows how to work a gameplan. I think he’ll use a similar strategy here and having trained at Tri-Star with the likes of Georges St-Pierre (24-2) and Rory MacDonald (15-1) he’ll have enough wrestling to keep things standing and outpoint McGee on his way to victory. – Whittaker via Decision

CG: In another fight featuring a former TUF middleweight winner who has made the drop to the welterweight division we see ‘The Pit’ trained Court McGee take his second fight in the division against TUF: The Smashes welterweight winner Robert Whittaker.  After running his UFC record to a perfect 3-0, with two submission finishes, Court bumped into another middleweight prospect on March 3rd, 2012 as he lost for the first time in the UFC to Costa Philippou.  He followed that up dropping a hotly disagreed with decision to Nick Ring at UFC 149.  Many felt he should have won the Ring fight and the stats back up that claim as he out struck Nick 32-25 in the second and 53-16 in the third round.  Having lost his second in a row he decided to make the drop to welterweight and faced journeymen fighter Josh Neer at UFC 157 earning a unanimous decision victory and setting a record for most significant strikes landed in a welterweight bout with 166.  Stepping into the Octagon opposite McGee will be TUF: The Smashes winner Robert Whittaker.  While he did look good in his performance, and victory over, Colton Smith, he has yet to face the competition McGee has been fighting over his last few bouts, and while he may not have gotten the win over Philippou or Ring they were closely contested bouts.  I expect McGee to earn himself another unanimous decision in this one. – McGee via Decision

DF: Robert Whittaker proved he could stick to, and execute a gameplan in his fight with Colton Smith.  That gameplan of leaving one arm down by his knee, reminding everyone vaguely of a Roy Jones Jr. style of striking worked wonders for defending the takedown against a very one dimensional Colton Smith.  Hopefully he comes up with something just as creative against Court McGee, because he’s anything but one dimensional.  A well-seasoned Karate fighter, he’s no stranger to the striking game, mixed in with a black belt in BJJ and he’s got a recipe for success in this fight.  He’s had problems in the past with top shelf competition, but I don’t think Whittaker is there yet.  I expect this to primarily be a striking match, and while Whittaker was undoubtedly very accurate against Colton Smith, I suspect a lot more movement and skill from McGee – McGee via Decision

CP: I have to agree with Dave on Whittaker.  Not really much more to add to it except having watched McGee’s last four fights, he looks like he isn’t really in to the fight game.  I don’t know if it’s just me or not, but based on how he carries himself in the cage I’ve never been confident in picking McGee as a winner.  Throw on a good strategy from Whittaker and his camp and watch him grab a decision.  – Whittaker via Decision

JS: This is certainly an intriguing mesh of styles, similar TUF backgrounds completely different fighters. McGee is a grinder who uses his famous John Hacklemen cardio training to simply outwit and outlast the man across from him. He won’t be able to do this against Whittaker though. Whittaker has deceptive composure and athletic ability and I believe that if Court attempts to make it dirty he will get taged by Whittaker’s crisp hands. Gameplanning is king and I simply have more confidence in Whittaker to fight his fight. – Whittaker via Decision 

MMAInsider.net picks – Robert Whittaker at 3-2

Bantamweight Bout – Takeya Mizugaki (17-7-2) vs. Erik Perez (13-4)

DR: Erik Perez has looked impressive since bursting onto the scene in the UFC’s bantamweight division, forcing three first round finishes so far for the promotion. He’s also the last man to defeat James Brum, and if you watched CWFC 58 this past weekend, you know that’s not an easy task. Mizugaki will be a game opponent and I think this will be an exciting bout, like the majority of bantamweight fights, but I see Perez getting the stoppage victory, whether it’s by tapout or knockout I’m a little unsure, but I’m leaning towards a submission. – Perez via Submission

CG: This fight is all Erik Perez.  He might not have gotten off to the greatest of starts to his MMA career going 0-2 over his debut and sophomore bouts, but he has made up for that in a big way.  Currently riding an eight fight undefeated streak, including four straight in the UFC, with six finishes Perez seems poised to break into the division Top 10 in the very near future.  Not to take anything away from Takeya Mizugaki, but he has yet to find the success Perez is currently enjoying.  He is 3-1 over his last four, and 4-2 in his UFC tenure but I can’t bet against a man on a roll. – Perez via Submission

DF: I love Mizugaki, but damn if Erik Perez hasn’t looked absolutely great lately.  Mizugaki has put a lot of miles on in his 26 fight career fight with the best of them, but he’s starting to slip.  Perez on the other hand has looked nothing but impressive, and is currently riding an 8 fight winning streak, 6 of them being finishes.  Since moving permanently to the United States he’s hooked up with Greg Jackson, so expect a solid gameplan, and great corner advice on his way to a submission victory.  – Perez via Submission

CP: If you’re a fan of Mizugaki, you’ve noticed, as well as I have, that he’s on the decline.  Fight after fight he’s been putting everything he has into trying to win, and has been doing it respectably.  He’s facing a young, well trained fighter who has been finishing people left and right since coming into the UFC.  I’m expecting Perez to continue on his winning ways, pulling of a submission in the later rounds after catching Mizugaki with something damaging. – Perez via Submission

JS: I’m a big fan of Mr. Mizugaki and I certainly admire him for going out on his sword in many of his bouts. That being said, I’m slowly starting to see the wear and tear begin to take it’s toll. I certainly can’t see him laying down for this fight, but he has run into one of the future stars of this division. Erik Perez comes with considerable well deserved hype and has impressed. Wednesday night is when he announces to the MMA world, he’s ready for the real limelight. – Perez via Decision

MMAInsider.net picks – Erik Perez 5-0

Middleweight Bout – Brad Tavares (10-1) vs. Robert McDaniel (21-6)

DR: McDaniel will be trying to get this one to the mat as standing I think Tavares has a major advantage. I think the movement of Tavares will make it difficult for McDaniel to land the takedown and see Tavares relying on his speed and athleticism to work his striking and force a late stoppage. – Tavares via (T)KO

CG: Maybe it was the editing, but something about McDaniel’s time on TUF found me disliking him.  He seems to have issues with the mental side of the sport and, as most will agree, that’s one of, if not, the most important parts of the game.  He didn’t live up to expectations in the house, and I think Tavares can extend his current three fight win streak in this one to bring his UFC record to 6-1. – Tavares via Decision

DF: Tavares hasn’t been overly impressive in his last few outings, but the man gets the job done every time.  I expect no different in this outing as Tavares manages to stuff the takedowns from Bubba, while picking him off with point striking.  When all is said and done, I see a unanimous decision for Tavares – Tavares via Decision

CP: I am kind of surprised at the line on this fight.  When I looked at it, Tavares was -450.  At +350 McDaniel seems like a good underdog pick in my book, if I were a betting man.  Tavares hasn’t been overly impressive in his last fights, where McDaniel, though having lost a couple in TUF, has shown he doesn’t quit and can finish in the later rounds.  I’m picking McDaniel by a late submission. – McDaniel via Submission

JS: I truly feel that this has the potential to be a very entertaining scrap, but I see Tavaves being too athletic for Bubba to handle. Brad will be able to wear down the slower Mcdaniel with strikes and use his superior clinch game to earn a finish in the later frames. Bubba will be game till the end though. – Tavares via (T)KO

MMAInsider.net picks – Brad Tavares 4-1

Middleweight Bout – Dylan Andrews (16-4 (1nc)) vs. Papy Abedi (9-2)

DR: Andrews via Decision

CG: Andrews via Decision

DF: Andrews via (T)KO

CP: Andrews via (T)KO

JS: Abedi via Decision

MMAInsider.net picks – Dylan Andrews 4-1

Welterweight Bout – Justin Edwards (8-2) vs. Brandon Thatch (9-1)

DR: Thatch via (T)KO

CG: Thatch via Decision

DF: Thatch via Decision

CP: Thatch via Decision

JS: Edwards via (T)KO

MMAInsider.net picks – Brandon Thatch 4-1

Featherweight Bout – Darren Elkins (16-3) vs. Hatsu Hioki (26-6-2)

DR: Hioki via Decision

CG: Elkins via Decision

DF: Elkins via Decision

CP: Elkins via Decision

JS: Elkins via Decision

MMAInsider.net picks – Darren Elkins 4-1

Welterweight Bout – James Head (9-3) vs. Jason High (16-4)

DR: Head via Decision

CG: Head via Decision

DF: High via Decision

CP: High via Decision

JS: High via Decision

MMAInsider.net picks – Jason High at 3-2

Welterweight Bout – Zak Cummings (15-3) vs. Ben Alloway (13-4)

DR: Cummings via Submission

CG: Alloway via Decision

DF: Alloway via (T)KO

CP: Alloway via (T)KO

JS: Alloway via (T)KO

MMAInsider.net picks – Ben Alloway 4-1

Lightweight Bout – Roger Bowling (11-4) vs. Abel Trujillo (10-5)

DR: Trujillo via Decision

CG: Trujillo via (T)KO

DF: Trujillo via Decision

CP: Trujillo via (T)KO

JS: Trujillo via Decision

MMAInsider.net picks – Abel Trujillo 5-0


Current scores after 7 events:

Chuck Grace:  – 57/83 (69%)

Dave Reid:  – 54/83 (65%)

Dane Ford:  – 50/83 (60%)

Jordan Smith:  – 49/83 (59%)

Chris Pohlman: – 37/58 (64%)

Douglas Keast: – 11/23 (48%)


Remember if you want to compete with the MMAInsider.net crew then head on over to MMAFantasyFever.com and go head to head with us!

About Dave Reid

Dave is an avid MMA fan and the content officer for MMAInsider.net If you would like to get in touch with him you can email him at dreid@mmainsider.net or follow him on twitter @davereiduk

Recommended for you


  1. Truthslayer

    August 27, 2013 at 1:59 am

    Condit knockout, Cerrone knockout, Gastelum decision, McGee knockout, Perez decision, Tavares decision. You heard it here first

  2. DReidUK

    August 28, 2013 at 7:06 pm

    CG: 7/11
    DR: 5/11
    DF: 8/11
    CP: 6/11
    JS: 5/11

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.