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UFC Fight Night 28: Teixeira vs Bader – Predictions

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Glover Teixeira vs Ryan Bader

 

UFC Fight Night 28: Teixeira vs Bader goes down this coming Wednesday on September 4th, 2013 at the Mineirinho Arena in Belo Horizonte, Brazil, featuring a main event of Glover Teixeira taking on Ryan Bader in the light heavyweight division and a co-main event that will see top middleweight contenders collide when Yushin Okami faces off against Ronaldo ‘Jacare’ Souza. Here are our MMAInsider.net staff picks.  Feel free to share your picks in the comments!

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Light Heavyweight Bout – Ryan Bader (15-3) vs Glover Teixeira (21-2)

DR: Teixeira is on a roll right now, putting together a nineteen fight winning streak, with four of those victories coming inside the UFC. However, depending on where you rank the likes of the ageing ‘Rampage’ Jackson and the still improving James Te Huna, Ryan Bader could be his biggest test yet. In all honesty though, it’s a test I expect Glover to pass with flying colours, as in my opinion, he’s a far superior striker as well as being a better grappler. When a fight features a talented wrestler, like Ryan Bader, there is always the chance that they may try to turn the fight into a wrestling match, relying on takedowns and plenty of top control to edge a decision. However, judging from how easy Teixeira took the likes of ‘Rampage’ down I’m not even sure if Bader is the better wrestler in this bout, even if he does have better wrestling credentials as a former All American Division 1 wrestler. All in all I am really struggling to see a way for Bader to win this fight. Anything is possible of course and as we saw in the Maldonado fight, Glover does have a little bit of a tendency to get over confident at times and eat a few shots. Short of that happening though and Bader landing that one big knockout blow I see this as Glover’s fight all day long and foresee a stoppage victory the first two rounds. – Teixeira via (T)KO

CG: How Ryan Bader was selected to face off against Glover Teixeira is a bit of a mystery to me.  Now I’m not suggesting Bader isn’t a solid fighter, he is, but he is 3-3 over his last six fights, whereas Glover is 4-0 in the UFC and currently on an 18 fight winning streak.  Pretty impressive stat, and he has elevated his opposition each fight.  Even while elevating that competition he has found success inside the Octagon, with his most recent victory being a first round submission win over the surging, and very dangerous, James Te Huna.  The lone loss on Bader’s record that truly stands out is his submission loss to Tito Ortiz.  Being the 1 on Ortiz’s 1-7-1 record over the past seven years isn’t something that generates a bunch of faith in the Arizona resident.  His other two losses to Jon Jones and Lyoto Machida are, obviously, completely understandable.  I ran this fight through my mind a hundred times, and I’m unable to come up with a scenario where Bader emerges the winner.  Glover is better anywhere this fight goes, and I expect him to get that impressive finish that, according to Dana White, will get him his shot at the UFC Light Heavyweight Championship. – Teixeira via (T)KO

JS: I’m a bit perplexed as to why this fight exists. Glover is on a 18 fight win streak with a 4-0 UFC record most recently finishing James de Huna in the first round. I truly believe Bader is one of the most talented wrestlers in the UFC, however Glover is just the type of fighter to punish him a great deal and make him hesitant to implement his own game plan and rely on his power and big right hand. I do see Bader taking the fight to the mat briefly, but Glover should have confidence in his striking and BJJ to once again secure an early finish on Wednesday Night. – Teixeira via Submission

CP: I keep thinking in my head that this fight is Chuck Liddell vs Tito Ortiz version 2.0.  I see it being finished in a similar way too.  Watch Bader try and use his striking to little effect while Teixeira picks him apart and then watch Bader look for takedowns, which Teixeira will defend or get right back up from.  John Hackelman, Teixeira’s coach, said he doesn’t see any way Bader beats him and I don’t either.  The question is how this fight gets finished.  I do think that if Bader can take it into the later rounds he might have a very small chance, but I expect Teixeira to take this fight within the first three rounds. – Teixeira via (T)KO

PB: Bader is a gifted fighter with great athleticism and wrestling but he lacks skills in the other areas to really have a great chance at beating Teixeira. Unless he has improved remarkably since his last appearance he’s going to outgunned severely almost where ever the fights goes. Teixeira is much better standing, in the clinch, and on the ground. He can win the fight in a variety of ways and Bader really only has that punchers chance. Teixeira via (T)KO

MMAInsider.net picks Glover Teixeira 5-0

 

Middleweight Bout – Yushin Okami (29-7) vs Ronaldo Souza (18-3 (1nc))

DR: This fight is an interesting clash of styles, as while ‘Jacare’ is the better pure grappler, I feel Okami is the bigger and stronger athlete who will have the edge when it comes to wrestling, perhaps enabling him to dictate whether or not the fight hits the mat in the first place. While the fight stays standing I expect Okami to get the better of things, relying on his  jab to keep Souza at distance and avoid any clinches that may enable the Brazilian to force a striking. ‘Jacare’ has improved his striking, which was evident in some of his final Strikeforce bouts, but I don’t feel it’s quite on the level of Okami’s just yet. Okami may not be the flashiest of strikers but he relies on what he does well, which is keep it simple and use distance to land straight punches. Both men may have a similar reach in this bout but I still feel Okami has refined his striking and use of distance to a level that ‘Jacare’ hasn’t quite reached. If this fight hits the mat, which it no doubt will at some point, then things will get very interesting, but for now I am leaning towards a close decision, edged out by Okami. – Okami via Decision

CG: On the feet this is a pretty competitive bout, but on the ground things start to sway towards to gifted grappler that they call “Jacare.”  After losing his Strikeforce Middleweight Championship to Luke Rockhold, Souza has gone on a tear recording four straight first round stoppages culminating in his UFC début with an arm triangle choke win over Chris Camozzi.  The submission even earned him Submission of the Night honors.  Okami has been fighting the better competition of the two, but his grind you out heavy wrestling style isn’t the best game plan to utilize against the BJJ prowess of Souza.  Now, Okami has never suffered a defeat via submission before, but he’s never set foot in a ring or cage with a grappler as gifted as he will come fight night.  I suspect he will be able to get a take down and attempt to employ his controlling top game, but that will only serve to allow Ronaldo to eventually setup his second straight UFC submission win. – Souza via Submission

JS: I question whether Okami vs Jacare will be the best fight on the card a snoozer but I feel this should be the true main event. This could be a very important fight as far as positioning in the division. Okami could use his strength to muscle Jacare in the clinch. I do believe Okami will attempt to use his wrestling and top game to smother Jacare and keep him off balance by changing levels with his striking. I fear however, he will become complacent in his top game and get caught by a superior grappler. – Jacare via Submission

CP: On paper, this fight seems like a classic grappler versus grappler that will wind up a striking match.  I’m pretty sure both fighters know this and I’d expect them to plan for it.  If I were in Okami’s camp I’d be game planning a heavy clinch against the cage grind fest.  Push Souza around, prevent any takedowns, and score damage through three rounds for the decision.  While it does give Souza chances at getting the fight to the ground, where I think Souza has an advantage, this is Okami’s game and he does it very well.  There is the Brazil home town advantage to worry about, but its high time that comes to an end in a more evenly contested fight. – Okami via Decision

PB: I actually think this fight boils down to the stand up game. Jacare has shown some improvement in his striking in his last few fights. If he can use his striking to put at least a small scare into Okami then he should be able to land some takedowns to work his better ground game. After getting takedowns Jacare will win the ground fight over Okami but it won’t be easy. – Jacare via Decision

MMAInsider.net picks Ronaldo ‘Jacare’ Souza 3-2

 

Flyweight Bout – Joseph Benavidez (18-3) vs Jussier Formiga (15-2)

DR: Benavidez’s only loss inside the octagon was a close split decision loss to current flyweight champion, Demetrious Johnson. Prior to that it was a close split decision loss to current bantamweight champion Dominick Cruz, and before that it was another decision loss to Cruz. You’re probably spotting a trend here, like his Team Alpha Male training partner Urijah Faber, Benavidez is one of those guys that may have a tricky time getting his hand raised against the very elite of the division, but outside of that he is dominant, only getting better, and almost certain to be a champion himself someday. Added to that, as we’ve mentioned on here a few times lately, Team Alpha Male have been tearing it up ever since ‘Bang’ Ludwig came on board (I’d be curious to know what their record is since he came in as head coach) and I expect this trend to continue here. Formiga is a good fighter, he’ll be a tough matchup for most in the division, but tonight’s not his night. Formiga has good boxing and the standup could be interesting for a while, but I see Benavidez being too powerful and too athletic to contain him, while Benavidez will also be able to ustilise his wrestling to dictate where the fight takes place, nullifying Formiga’s talented grappling ability on the mat. – Benavidez via (T)KO

CG: Outside of his very closely contested bout for the inaugural UFC Flyweight Championship that resulted in a split decision loss to current Champion Demetrious Johnson, Joey B is 3-0 with two stoppages as a flyweight.  His only two losses as a bantamweight were to Dominick Cruz, the current UFC Bantamweight Champion, which were also very close fights, and outside his natural weight class.  Now that the Team Alpha Male product is competing in his natural division I expect him to be the next flyweight title contender, and ultimately the man to dethrone the current Champion.  Formiga is a solid grappling based fighter who holds seven submission wins over his career, but  I don’t think he will be able to match the striking of Benavidez in this one. – Benavidez via (T)KO

JS: I agree that fans should not sleep on the skills of Formiga and I expect him to have a successful UFC run at some point. Joseph Benavidez however, is a fighter fighting in the wrong generation, he has the skills to be a champion in the UFC. He just happens to be fighting in the same divisions as Dominick Cruz and Mighty Mouse Johnson during his prime. I expect Benavidez to be able to dictate the pace and control the octagon. My pick for fight of the night on Wednesday ends with Benavidez earning the late finish – Benavidez via (T)KO

CP:  What else is there to say really.  Benavidez has the wrestling to dictate where this fight takes place and the ever improving striking game due to Ludwig  his entire camp is getting will easily make this fight Benavidez’s to lose.  Any thing can happen in MMA, but probably not this time around. – Benavidez via (T)KO

PB: Not to belittle Formiga’s skills because he is very talented but I think Benavidez is just simply on another level at this time. Benavidez has fought the best flyweights and beaten almost all of them with the exception of a split decision loss to flyweight champion Demetrious Johnson. Benavidez has finished 13 of his 18 wins and works his hardest to end fights before the judges can make a verdict. Benavidez via TKO

MMAInsider.net picks Joseph Benavidez 5-0

 

Lightweight Bout – Piotr Hallmann (13-1) vs Francisco Trinaldo (13-2)

DR: Trinaldo has made a good start to his UFC career, going 3-1, after a spell on TUF Brazil, and showing good striking together with a talented ground game. After originally debuting at middleweight, Trinaldo dropped down two divisions to his more natural weight class of 155. Trinaldo’s only loss inside the octagon came to the talented Gleison Tibau and following that defeat he’s finished both of his opponents, via arm triangle. He’ll be going up against Hallman, a talented Polish fighter who likes to push forward with his boxing, work for the takedown and then rain down a barrage of ground and pound to either force a (T)KO stoppage or sink in a choke, should they scramble to escape or give up their back. I think Trinaldo will be a little too technical for Hallman and together with his higher level of experience, it should be enough to see the Brazilian through with a victory. However, I don’t see him continuing his run of finishes against Hallman, who has shown good submission defence, and expect this one to end by decision. – Trinaldo via Decision

CG:  Hallmann enters this fight riding high on a nine fight streak with eight finishes.  Five via submission, three via knock out, so it stands to reason the debuting Piotr is a well rounded fighter.  He will be taking on four fight UFC veteran Francisco Trinaldo on the night, and Trinaldo sports a nice 3-1 record with two finishes.  The lone UFC loss comes at the hands of current top UFC lightweight Gleison Tibau, no shame there.  It should also be noted he made his UFC début in the middleweight division, so he is a massive lightweight.  While Hallmann is a gifted fighter, I don’t see him getting the win against the Brazilian in his home country.  Look for Trinaldo to run his streak to three. – Trinaldo via Decision

JS: This should be a battle. Two big 155ers cutting weight with similar styles, but I feel the hometown advantage will play a huge factor here. Trinaldo fights with a passion that the Brazilian crowd can only help to fuel the pace of Trinaldo. The ground game is where I see the biggest discrepancy in the fight and I see the run of finishes on this card (according to my expert opinions sigh) continuing, this time by submission. -Trinaldo via Submission

CP: While the last three fights of the card seem a lot closer in nature and skill level, this fight seems like a home crowd pleaser on paper. Hallmann is moving down to 155 where he’s facing a lightweight fighter who competed in the middle weight TUF season to get into the UFC.  Hallmann likes to box and look for the takedown.  That style plays right into Trinaldo’s game and I expect Trinaldo is going to want to get a decisive victory for his home town fans, probably a guillotine off of one of the Hallmann takedown attempts early in the first. – Trinaldo via Submission

PB: Trinaldo has been around the UFC for quite some time now with a solid 3-1 record compared to Hallmann’s UFC debut. The jitters can make or break a fighter in his first appearance in the octagon and I’m guessing that it’ll take a round or two for Hallmann to get really acquainted with the Octagon and his opponent. Down the road Hallmann looks to be the superior prospect but I think Trinaldo will be able to use the advantages to win the fight. – Trinaldo via Decision

MMAInsider.net picks Francisco Trinaldo 5-0

Middleweight Bout – Rafael Natal (16-4-1) vs Tor Troeng (16-4-1)

DR:  – Natal via Decision

CG: While Troeng didn’t fair to well on his season of The Ultimate Fighter, he is currently entering this bout on a five fight streak.  On the other side of the cage Natal will be looking to go three straight for the first time since he signed with the UFC.  Even though they show the same record, Tor brings slightly more momentum into this bout.  I’m not sure that will translate into a win over the Brazilian, especially at home.  We all know how nuts Brazilian fans go for their fighters, and that’s something that always seems to feed their countrymen.  Add to that the sometimes seen “hometown decision” and I think Natal gets his third in a row. – Natal via Decision

JS: Natal is reportedly bringing 250 of his closest friends to this fight, that to me is the sign of a confident and prideful fighter.  I do believe Troeng is talented in all areas and will do enough to survive, however I can’t see him doing enough to win. Natal does enough to win a lopsided Unanimous decision. – Natal via Decision

CP: Come on guys, we’re talking about a Renzo Gracie Jui Jitsu professor who is fighting in Brazil against a Swede.  What more needs to be said? – Natal via Submission

PB: Natal comes into this fight with a (4-2-1) UFC record which is actually pretty solid. Tor Troeng comes in after winning his UFC debut by submission. Troeng is supposed to be a highly rated prospect with great skills but hasn’t been able to fulfill his potential. Natal on the other hand has been around for a while and we know what he brings to the table with his fight history. Natal is a solid fighter with more big fight experience. Natal via Decision

MMAInsider.net picks Rafael Natal 5-0

 

Flyweight Bout – Ali Bagautinov (10-2) vs Marcos Vinicius (20-4-1)

DR: Bagautinov via Decision

CG: Bagautinov via (T)KO

JS: Vinicius via Submission

CP: Bagautinov via (T)KO

PB: Bagautinov via TKO

MMAInsider.net picks Ali Bagautinov 4-1

 

Featherweight Bout – Felipe Arantes (15-5-1 (2nc)) vs Edimilson Souza (13-3)

DR: Arantes via Decision

CG: Souza via (T)KO

JS: Arantes via Decision

CP: Arantes via Decision

PB: Arantes via Decision

MMAInsider.net picks  Felipe Arantes 4-1

 

Welterweight Bout – Elias Silverio (8-0) vs Joao Zeferino (13-5)

DR: Zeferino via Submission

CG: Zeferino via Submission

JS: Zeferino via Submission

CP: Silverio via (T)KO

PB: Zeferino via Submission

MMAInsider.net picks Joao Zeferino 4-1

 

Bantamweight Bout – Ramiro Hernandez (13-4) vs Lucas Martins (13-1)

DR: Hernandez via Decision

CG: Martins via (T)KO

JS: Martins via (T)KO

CP: Hernandez via Decision

PB: Martins via (T)KO

MMAInsider.net picks Lucas Martins 3-2

 

Welterweight Bout – Ivan Jorge (24-3) vs Keith Wisniewski (28-14-1)

DR: Jorge via Submission

CG: Jorge via Submission

JS: Wisniewski via Decision

CP: Jorge via Submission

PB: Jorge via Decision

MMAInsider.net picks Ivan Jorge 4-1

 

Welterweight Bout – Sean Spencer (9-2) vs Yuri Villefort (6-2)

DR: Villefort via Submission

CG: Villefort via Submission

JS: Villefort via Decision

CP: Villefort via Submission

PB: Villefort via Decision

MMAInsider.net picks Yuri Villefort 5-0

 

Current scores after 9 events:

Chuck Grace:  – 57/83 (69%)

Dave Reid:  – 54/83 (65%)

Dane Ford:  – 50/83 (60%)

Jordan Smith:  – 49/83 (59%)

Chris Pohlman: – 37/58 (64%)

Douglas Keast: – 11/23 (48%)

Paul Bruens – 5/12 (42%)

 

Remember if you want to compete with the MMAInsider.net crew then head on over to MMAFantasyFever.com and go head to head with us!

 

About Dave Reid

Dave is an avid MMA fan and the content officer for MMAInsider.net If you would like to get in touch with him you can email him at dreid@mmainsider.net or follow him on twitter @davereiduk

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1 Comment

  1. DReidUK

    September 5, 2013 at 12:47 am

    DR: 5/11
    CG: 8/11
    JS: 5/11
    CP: 6/11
    PB: 7/11

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